Evaluation of the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan and recommendations for improvement
David G. Groves, Debra Knopman, James Syme, Nidhi Kalra, Zhimin Mao.
Bok Engelsk
| Opplysninger | Introduction -- Approach to Analysis and Visualization of Long-Term Performance -- Development and Calibration of the Jinan WEAP Model -- Scenario Development -- Baseline Evaluation of Vulnerability to Unmet Demand Assuming Historical Climate Conditions -- Evaluation of Vulnerabilities Across Future Climate Projections -- Reducing Vulnerability to Unmet Demand Through the Implementation Plan and Additional Management Strategies -- Challenges of Flood Frequency Analysis Under a Changing Climate -- Observations and Recommendations -- Appendix A: Data Collection -- Appendix B: Status of Implementation Plan -- Appendix C: Adjustment of Demand Projections -- Appendix D: Regression Models Used in Climate Projections -- Appendix E: Decision Rule for Springs Adaptive Groundwater Management -- Appendix F: Experimental Design -- Appendix G: Water Balance Tables.. - The Jinan Municipal Water Resources Bureau, with support from the Shandong Provincial Department of Water Resources, asked RAND to evaluate potential effects of demand and climate uncertainties on investments recently undertaken according to the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan. RAND was also asked to assess the potential of new investments and management strategies to help Jinan meet its long-term water resources goals. RAND's approach uses well-tested methods of decision support, starting with building a shared understanding of the nature of the decision, metrics to evaluate progress toward goals, key uncertainties that drive outcomes, and relevant physical and other relationships within Jinan's complex water system. The approach also uses visualizations to help policymakers understand the implications of the results, build consensus, and facilitate decision making. This document describes RAND's approach and results, including the development of a mathematical simulation model of the Jinan water system, using the Water Evaluation and Planning software developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute, and analysis of the system's performance under a range of uncertainties about future climate and demand across sectors--
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