Improving homeland security decisions
editors, Ali E. Abbas, Milind Tambe, Detlof von Winterfeldt
Bok Engelsk 2017
| Medvirkende | |
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| Omfang | 1 online resource (xi, 774 pages) : : digital, PDF file(s).
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| Opplysninger | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Jan 2018).. - Cover -- Half-title -- Title page -- Copyright information -- Table of contents -- List of contributors -- 1 Improving Homeland Security Decisions -- 1.1 Introduction -- 2 Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.1.1 2006 Bioterrorism Risk Assessment Background -- 2.1.2 Intelligent Adversary Analysis -- 2.2 Probabilities Are Useful to Quantify the Risk of Terrorist Attacks -- 2.3 Tools for Terrorism Risk Analysis -- 2.3.1 Logic Trees -- 2.3.1.1 Probability, Event, and Decision Trees -- 2.3.1.2 Fault, Attack, and Success Tree -- 2.3.2 Influence Diagrams -- 2.3.3 Causal Loop Diagrams and Systems Dynamic Models -- 2.3.4 Bayesian Network Analysis -- 2.3.5 Game Theoretic Models -- 2.4 Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- Notes -- References -- 3 Integrating Stakeholder Values into Strategic Planning through Comparative Risk Analysis -- 3.1 Overview of Five Steps on Process -- 3.2 Categorizing the Risks -- 3.3 Selecting Attributes -- 3.4 Presenting Risks -- 3.5 Unique Aspects of Assessing Comparative Risk in the Homeland Security Domain -- 3.6 Conducting Risk Rankings -- 3.6.1 Recruiting Participants -- 3.6.2 Carrying Out Sessions -- 3.7 Interpreting Results -- 3.8 Extensions -- References -- 4 Validating Terrorism Risk Assessment Models - Lessons Learned from 11 Models -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Introducing a TRAM Validation Conceptual Framework -- 4.3 Perspective I: Capturing the Risk-Generating Process -- 4.4 Perspective II: Model Quality -- 4.5 Perspective III: Engaging With the Risk Management Decision-Making Process -- Example 1: Putting uncertainty into terms relevant to the risk management decision-making process (DMP) -- Example 2: Considering how the DMP will address risk aspects left out of a TRAM -- 4.6 Perspective IV: Engaging with the Terrorist-Defender Game -- 4.7 An Example Application of the 13 Tests.. - 13 Economic Impacts of Changes in Wait Times at U.S. Ports of Entry -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Methodological Overview -- 13.2.1 Microeconomic Analysis -- 13.2.2 Macroeconomic Analysis -- 13.3 Data -- 13.4 Overview of Results -- 13.5 Microeconomic Analysis of Changes in Wait Times -- 13.5.1 Passenger Vehicle Lanes at Land Border Crossings: Impact on Wait Time of Adding an Officer -- 13.5.2 Passenger Vehicle Lanes at Land Border Crossings: Value of Time Saved for Existing Traffic -- Passenger Vehicle Lanes at Land Border Crossings: New Cross-Border Trips Induced by Lower Wait Time -- Commercial Vehicles at Land Border Crossings: Change in Wait Time and Cross-Border Trips -- International Air Arrivals at Airports: Change in Wait Time and Cross-Border Trips -- International Air Arrivals at Airports: Value of Time Saved for Existing Traffic -- International Air Arrivals at Airports: New International Air Trips Resulting from Change in Wait Time -- 13.6 Impacts of Reduced Wait Times on Truck Transportation Costs -- 13.6.1 Volumes of Truck Traffic at the Border -- 13.6.2 Wait Times for Trucks at the Border -- 13.6.3 Truck Travel Distances -- 13.6.4 Truck Operating Costs -- 13.6.5 Changes in Truck Transportation Costs -- 13.6.6 Truck Opportunity Cost of Time Savings -- 13.7 National Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Impacts of Changes in Freight Transportation Costs -- 13.7.1 Trade and Transport in GTAP -- 13.7.2 Results and Comparisons -- 13.8 Regional and National Macroeconomic Impacts of Changes in Tourism and Business Travel -- 13.8.1 Input-Output Analysis -- 13.8.2 Further CGE Analysis -- 13.8.3 Methodology and Data Sources for Estimating Changes in Travel Expenditures -- Expenditure Changes of Land Travelers -- Expenditure Changes of Air Travelers -- 13.8.4 Simulation Results -- Impact Results for Wait Time Changes at Passenger Land POEs.. - 4.8 Combining Perspectives III and IV -- 4.9 Summary of Main Points -- 4.10 Paths Forward -- References -- 5 Coping with Uncertainty in Adversarial Risk Analysis -- 5.1 What Types of Uncertainties Can Be Important in Terrorism Risk Analysis? -- 5.1.1 Terrorists' Uncertainty about the Consequences of Various Possible Acts -- 5.1.2 Defender Uncertainty about Terrorists -- 5.1.3 Uncertainty about One's Own Values (Present and Future) -- 5.2 Strategies for Dealing with Statistical Uncertainty and "Deep Uncertainty" -- 5.2.1 Are We Being Attacked Yet? Computational Methods for Detecting Changes and Quantifying Uncertainty -- 5.2.2 Predicting and Quantifying Uncertainties about Adversarial Risks Using BN, ID, or Nested Decision-Tree Models -- 5.2.3 Predicting Adversarial Risks with Unknown Probabilities and Scarce Data -- Imprecise Probabilities, Second-Order Probabilities, and Bounding Approaches -- Robust Inference and Optimization -- Adaptive Learning, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Model Ensembles, and "Plural Analysis" -- 5.3 How Has Uncertainty Analysis Been Used in Adversarial Risk Analysis? -- 5.4 Making Prudent Decisions Despite Realistic Uncertainties -- References -- 6 A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.1.1 The Dirty Bomb Threat -- 6.2 Sources of Radioactive Material -- 6.2.1 Nuclear Reactor and Waste Facilities -- 6.2.2 Medical, Research, and Industrial Facilities -- 6.2.3 Foreign Sources of Radioactive Material -- 6.3 Scenarios and Probabilities -- 6.3.1 Type of Bomb Constructed -- 6.3.2 Delivery Modes -- 6.3.3 Detonation Site -- 6.3.4 Pruning Scenarios and Assessing Relative Likelihoods -- 6.3.5 Probabilities of Success -- 6.4 Consequences -- 6.4.1 Blast Effects and Acute Radiation -- 6.4.2 Health Effects Due to Airborne Releases.. - 6.4.3 Economic Consequences -- 6.5 Countermeasures -- 6.6 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 7 Regional Transportation and Supply Chain Modeling for Large-Scale Emergencies -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Inventory Management Problem -- 7.2.1 Inventory Model -- 7.2.2 Example -- 7.3 Storage Problem -- 7.3.1 Facility Location Model -- 7.3.2 Illustrative Example -- 7.4 Distribution Problem -- 7.4.1 Vehicle Routing Model -- 7.4.2 Example -- 7.5 Conclusion -- Acknowledgment -- References -- 8 Economic Consequences of Terrorism and Natural Disasters: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 An Introduction to Basic Design of a CGE Model -- 8.2.1 The Starting Point: The Input-Output Database -- 8.2.2 Moving Off the Starting Point -- 8.2.3 How Does CGE Modeling Relate to Regression-Based Econometric? -- 8.3 Extensions of CGE to Incorporate Resilience and Behavioral Linkages -- 8.3.1 Resilience -- 8.3.2 Behavioral Linkages -- 8.4 USAGE and USAGE-TERM -- 8.4.1 USAGE -- 8.4.2 USAGE-TERM -- 8.5 An Illustrative Application of CGE Modeling: The Economic Effects... -- 8.5.1 Setting up USAGE-TERM and Specifying the Shocks -- 1. Impact Area, Immediate Deaths, Affected Surviving Population -- 2. Shutdown Period -- 3. Evacuations and Labor Supply -- 4. Later Deaths, Morbidity, and Labor Supply -- 5. Medical Expenditures -- 6. Radiation Clean-Up and Decontamination Cost -- 7. Treatment of Capital -- 8. Aversion Behavior and the Return of the Evacuated Population -- 9. Financing: The Public-Sector Deficit and Foreign Debt -- 8.5.2 Results -- 8.6 Concluding Remarks -- Notes -- References -- 9 Economic Resilience to Terrorism and Natural Hazards -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Defining Resilience across Disciplines -- 9.2.1 Ecological Origins -- 9.2.2 Individual Resilience -- 9.2.3 Community Resilience -- 9.2.4 Engineering-Based Definitions.. - 9.2.5 Organizational Behavior -- 9.2.6 Planning -- 9.3 Defining Economic Resilience -- 9.3.1 Basic Attributes -- 9.3.2 Time-Path of Resilience -- 9.4 An Operational Metric -- 9.5 Measurement of Economic Resilience -- 9.6 Resilience Indices -- 9.7 Conclusion -- References -- 10 The Temporal Regional Economic Impacts of a Hurricane Disaster on Oil Refinery Operations: A FlexNIEMO Approach -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 IO Operation and NIEMO -- 10.3 Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico -- 10.4 The Model -- 10.5 FlexNIEMO Results -- 10.6 Conclusions -- References -- 11 Risk-Informed Benefit-Cost Analysis -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Risk Principles and Enterprise Risk Management in the U.S. Government -- 11.3 The Department of Homeland Security Context -- 11.4 Risk Management Models and Metrics -- 11.5 Meta Model Choice -- 11.6 Benefit-Cost Analysis and the Implementation of Risk Concepts -- 11.7 Risk and BCA -- 11.8 Meta-choice and Specification within Benefit-Cost Analysis -- 11.9 Metrics -- 11.9.1 Decision Criteria Metrics -- 11.9.2 Preferences and Behavioral Response Metrics -- 11.10 Variability and Randomness -- 11.11 Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- 12 Enhancing Post-disaster Economic Resilience: Public-Private Partnership for Insuring Terrorism -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Challenges in Insuring Terrorism -- 12.2.1 Dynamic Uncertainty and Time Scale -- 12.2.2 Potential for Catastrophic Losses -- 12.2.3 Interdependencies -- 12.3 Decision Processes of Insurers Regarding Terrorism Insurance -- 12.3.1 Impact of Availability Bias on Insurer Behavior -- 12.3.2 Role of Ambiguity on Insurer Behavior -- 12.4 The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) -- 12.4.1 Structure of the New TRIA Partnership5 -- 12.4.2 Estimating Losses from Terrorist Attack Scenarios -- 12.5 Conclusion -- Notes -- References.. - Impact Results for Wait Time Changes at Airline Passenger POEs.. - What are the risks of terrorism and what are their consequences and economic impacts? Are we safer from terrorism today than before 9/11? Does the government spend our homeland security funds well? These questions motivated a twelve-year research program of the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the University of Southern California, funded by the Department of Homeland Security. This book showcases some of the most important results of this research and offers key insights on how to address the most important security problems of our time. Written for homeland security researchers and practitioners, this book covers a wide range of methodologies and real-world examples of how to reduce terrorism risks, increase the efficient use of homeland security resources, and thereby make better decisions overall.
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| Emner | |
| Dewey | |
| ISBN | 1-108-20720-0. - 1-108-21665-X. - 1-316-67671-4
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