Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012 : Middle East and Central Asia.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central. Asia Dept.
Bok Engelsk 2012 · Electronic books.
| Omfang | 1 online resource (131 pages)
|
|---|---|
| Utgave | 1st ed.
|
| Opplysninger | Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Assumptions and Conventions -- Country and Regional Groupings -- World Economic Outlook -- MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN -- MENAP Highlights -- Région MOANAP: Principaux points -- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs -- Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy -- Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances -- A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk -- Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience -- Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price -- Infl ation Developments Mixed -- Renewed Bond Issuance -- Reforms for More Inclusive Growth -- Annex 1.1. The Natural Gas Market: Where Is It Heading? -- Natural Gas Supply Is Meeting Demand -- The Increasing Importance of Shale Gas -- Benefi ts of Indexation to Oil, Regional Segmentation -- Annex 1.2. Inward Spillovers to MENA Countries from a GDP Shock in G3 Countries -- Shock to Chinese GDP -- Shock to U.S. GDP -- Shock to Euro Area GDP -- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth -- Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013 -- Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising -- External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished -- Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility -- Rising Subsidies, Deteriorating Fiscal Positions -- Rising Debt Levels, Consolidation Necessary -- Financial Sector: Mixed Performance -- Downside Risks Are Elevated -- Need to Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability -- Minimizing the Growth and Social Impact of Fiscal Consolidation -- Structural Reforms Needed to Enhance Inclusive Growth -- Annex 2.1. MENAP and CCA Countries: Highly Vulnerable to Food Price Hikes -- CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA -- CCA Highlights -- Основные положения по странам КЦА.. - 1.9 Large Current Account Surpluses -- 1.10 Credit Growth Rising -- 1.11 Event Study of Oil Prices, 1970-2012 -- 1.12 GCC Sukuk Issuance Up -- 1.13 GCC Bond Yields Down -- 1.14 Stock Markets Have Made Gains in 2012 -- 1.15 MENAP Oil Exporters: Restricted International Trade in Services -- 1.16 Private-Sector Job Creation for GCC Nationals: High But Not Enough -- 2.1 Exports and Imports of Goods -- 2.2 Real GDP Growth in 2012 Similar to 2011 -- 2.3 Weak Recovery in 2013 -- 2.4 Inflationary Pressures -- 2.5 Exchange Rates Have Appreciated in Some Countries -- 2.6 International Tourist Arrivals -- 2.7 External Current Account Deficits Continue to Widen -- 2.8 International Issuance of Bonds, Equity, and Loans -- 2.9 Official Financing Disbursed since Arab Awakening -- 2.10 Gross International Reserves Declining -- 2.11 Terms of Trade Deteriorating in Many Countries -- 2.12 Increase in Government Expenditure -- 2.13 Private-Sector Credit Squeezed -- 2.14 Fiscal Financing Outpacing Deposit Growth -- 2.15 Contribution to Debt Accumulation -- 2.16 Stock Market Indices Lower in Some Countries, Higher in Others -- 2.17 Sovereign Bond Spreads Higher -- 2.18 Public Investment Is Low -- 2.19 Public Investment Project Implementation Is Weak -- 3.1 Growth of Oil GDP -- 3.2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production -- 3.3 Growth of Non-Oil GDP -- 3.4 Food Price Infl ation Headline CPI Inflation -- 3.5 Current Account Balance -- 3.6 Reserves plus Sovereign Wealth Funds -- 3.7 Fiscal Balance -- 3.8 Breakeven Fiscal Oil Prices -- 3.9 Government Net Deposits in Banking System -- 3.10 Real GDP -- 3.11 Remittances from Russia to CCA Countries -- 3.12 Food Price Inflation Headline CPI Inflation -- 3.13 Current Account Balance Gross International Reserves -- 3.14 Fiscal Balance Government Debt.. - 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains -- Oil and Gas Exporters -- Oil and Gas Importers -- Downside Risks: Moderate Impact from Euro Area Crisis -- Annex 3.1. Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia -- The Size of Informality -- What Are the Causes and Indicators of Informality? -- Policy Recommendations to Reduce Informal Economies -- Statistical Appendix -- References -- IMF Publications on the Middle East and Central Asia 2011-12 -- Boxes -- 1.1 Libya: Moving Beyond the Revolution -- 1.2 What Is the 'Right' Surplus for the GCC? -- 1.3 Outward Spillovers from a GDP Shock in the GCC Region -- 1.4 Financial Spillovers to MENAP Oil Exporters -- 2.1 Syria's Crisis: Domestic Economic Impact and Regional Spillovers -- 2.2 The Economics of Political Transitions -- 2.3 Recovering from a Downturn: Lessons from Past Business Cycles -- 2.4 West Bank and Gaza: Moving Beyond Crisis Management -- 2.5 Euro Area Financial Spillovers to MENAP Oil Importers -- 2.6 Is There Scope for Growth-Friendly Fiscal Consolidation in MENAP Countries? -- 2.7 Arab Countries in Transition: Economic Reforms to Foster Growth and Employment -- 3.1 The Kyrgyz Republic: Emerging from a Domestic Crisis -- 3.2 Euro Area Financial Spillovers to CCA Banking Sectors -- 3.3 Remittances and External Spillovers to MENA and CCA Countries -- 3.4 Public Financial Institutions in the CCA: Promoting Financially Sustainable Economic Development -- Figures -- 1.1 2012 GDP Growth Boosted by Libya -- 1.2 Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy -- 1.3 Qatar Has Driven Gas Export Growth -- 1.4 Government Wage Bills Rising Fast -- 1.5 Fiscal Positions Have Deteriorated -- 1.6 Fiscal Balances Sensitive to Oil Prices -- 1.7 Fiscal Vulnerability Rising -- 1.8 Probability that Oil Price Falls Below Fiscal Breakeven Price.. - 3.15 Correlation Coefficients Between Real GDP Growth of CCA Countries and Advanced Europe and Russia -- 3.16 CCA Oil Importers: Geographical Destination of Exports, 2011 -- 3.17 CCA Oil Importers: Geographic Origin of Foreign Direct Investment, 2010 CCA Oil Exporters: Geographic Origin of Foreign Direct Investment, 2010 -- 3.18 Commodity Terms of Trade -- Tables -- MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-13 -- MENAP Oil Exporters: Selected Economic Indicators -- MENAP Oil Importers: Selected Economic Indicators -- CCA Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-13 -- CCA: Selected Economic Indicators -- Statistical Appendix -- 1. Real GDP Growth -- 2. Nominal GDP -- 3. Oil Exporters: Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth -- 4. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production -- 5. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Exports -- 6. Breakeven Oil Prices -- 7. Consumer Price Infl ation -- 8. Core Consumer Price Inflation -- 9. Broad Money Growth -- 10. Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing -- 11. General Government Fiscal Balance -- 12. General Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants -- 13. Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance -- 14. Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Revenue -- 15. General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending -- 16. Total Government Gross Debt -- 17. Selected MENAP Countries: Total Government Net Debt -- 18. Exports of Goods and Services -- 19. Imports of Goods and Services -- 20. Current Account Balance -- 21. Current Account Balance -- 22. Gross Official Reserves -- 23. Total Gross External Debt -- 24. Capital Adequacy Ratios -- 25. Return on Assets -- 26. Nonperforming Loans.. - The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region's oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya's better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.
|
| Emner | |
| Sjanger | |
| Dewey | |
| ISBN | 9781475578379
|
| ISBN(galt) |
