Priority challenges for social and behavioral research and its modeling
Paul K. Davis, Angela O'Mahony, Timothy R. Gulden, Osonde A. Osoba, Katharine Sieck.
Bok Engelsk
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| Opplysninger | CHAPTER ONE: Introduction ; Objectives ; Background ; Structure of Report ; CHAPTER TWO: Difficulties, Challenges, and a Broad Strategy for Next Steps ; Inherent Difficulties of Social-Behavioral Science and Its Modeling ; Complex Adaptive Systems ; Wicked Problems ; The Dynamic Character of People and Social Systems ; Obstacles Due to Shortcomings of Current Practice ; Fragmentation ; Methods and Norms ; Representing the Richness of the Science ; Modularity and Composability ; Rethinking Model Validity -- CHAPTER THREE: Broad Strategy for Next Steps -- CHAPTER FOUR: Tightening the Theory-Modeling-Experimentation Research Cycle ; Background on Differences of Philosophy ; An Idealized System View Relating the Real and Model Worlds ; Reality versus the Ideal ; Reality and Its Implications ; Moving Toward the Ideal -- CHAPTER FIVE: Theory and Its Modeling ; Assimilating Modeling Better into Social-Behavioral Science ; Assuring That Modeling Is Faithful to Subtleties of Theory ; Toward Multivariate Causal Models ; Causality ; Multivariate Aspects and Nonlinearity ; Dealing Routinely with Uncertainty ; Going Beyond Simulation: Using a Portfolio of Modeling Methods ; Toward Greater Generality, Synthesis, and Coherence ; Issues ; Scale and Perspective ; Reconciling Models Across Type, Formalism, Resolution, and Perspective ; Improving Scientific Practices -- CHAPTER SIX: Experimentation ; Theory-Informed Experimentation ; Urging a Theory-Informed Approach Is Not Radical ; To Inform with Theory Is Not to Impose a Theory ; Connections Exist with Multiresolution Modeling ; Other Issues ; Estimating Difficult-to-Measure Variables ; Speed, Tailoring ; Joint Planning for Empirical and Computational Experimentation ; New Sources and New Technology -- Exploratory Research and Analysis ; CHAPTER SEVEN: Modernizing Model-Based Decision Aiding ; The Decision-Aiding Aspect of the Challenge ; Deep Uncertainty ; Principles and Lessons Learned ; Implications for Analysis Outputs and Communication -- CHAPTER EIGHT: Methods and Technology ; Capacity for Multidimensional Uncertainty Analysis ; Variable-Structure Simulation and Emergence ; Knowledge Management and Heterogeneous Information Fusion ; Composability ; Theory-Informed Empirical and Computational Experimentation ; Interactivity, Gaming, and Related Visualization ; Other -- CHAPTER NINE: Infrastructure, Culture, and Governance ; Infrastructure ; Cultural Mindsets ; Governance and Ethics, Privacy, and Civil Liberties ; Results from a Workshop on Ethics and Privacy ; More General Ethical Reasons for Caution ; Final Comments -- APPENDIXES: A. Social and Behavioral Modeling Laboratories ; B. Definitions ; C. Validation ; D. Participants in Workshops.. - "This report summarizes priority challenges for social-behavioral modeling, which has not yet begun to reach its full potential. Some of the obstacles reflect inherent challenges: Social systems are complex adaptive systems; they often pose "wicked problems", and even the structure of social systems shows emergent behavior. Other obstacles reflect disciplinary norms and practices, mindsets, and numerous scientific and methodological challenges. We discuss challenges in six groups: 1. Improving the research cycle by tightening links among theory, modeling, and experimentation 2. Seeking more unifying and coherent theories while retaining alternative perspectives and confronting multidimensional uncertainty 3. Invigorating experimentation with modern data sources and emphasis on theory-observation iteration 4. Modernizing ways to use social-behavioral models for analysis to aid decisionmaking, in particular by drawing on lessons learned from other domains about using models to assist planning under deep uncertainty 5. Challenging theorists and technologists to provide related methods and tools, since those that exist now are inadequate and often counterproductive 6. Nurturing the rest of the ecology needed (notably infrastructure, governance, and culture), and doing so in a way that adheres to the highest standards with regard to ethics, privacy, and responsible use of model-based analysis to inform policy decisions that may have profound effects."--Publisher's description.
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