Latin America : Vulnerabilities Under Construction?.
Luis M. Cubeddu
Bok Engelsk 2012 · Electronic books.
| Omfang | 1 online resource (28 pages)
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| Utgave | 1st ed.
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| Opplysninger | Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Developments in The Mortgage Credit and Real Estate Sector -- A. Mortgage Credit -- B. Construction Activity -- C. House Prices -- III. Making the Most of Imperfect Data -- A. Identifying Mortgage Booms -- B. Identifying Housing Price Booms -- IV. The Household Debt Burden and Financial Balance Sheets -- V. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations -- References -- Tables -- 1. Data Availability on Select Financial and Housing Sector Indicators -- 2. Determinants of Equilibrium House Prices: Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru -- Figures -- 1. Latin America: Mortgage and Housing Market Developments -- 2. Actual and Estimated Real House Prices -- 3. House Price Over/(under)valuation -- Box -- 1. Colombia's Mortgage Crisis of the Late 1990s: A Cautionary Tale -- Appendices -- I. Data Definitions and Sources -- II. Methodologies for Estimating Credit Booms and House Price Bubbles -- III. Cointegration Tests.. - This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.
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| ISBN | 9781475573350
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