Consumer expectations : micro foundations and macro impact /
Richard T. Curtin.
Bok Engelsk 2019 Richard Thomas Curtin,· Electronic books.
| Omfang | 1 online resource (xix, 343 pages) : : digital, PDF file(s).
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| Utgave | 1st ed.
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| Opplysninger | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Mar 2019).. - Cover -- Half-title -- Title page -- Copyright information -- Dedication -- Table of contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- 1 Expectations and the Macroeconomy -- Formation of Expectations -- A More Realistic Paradigm -- Full Mental Faculties -- Rationality Is Context Sensitive -- Economics of Recessions -- Recessions Are Irrational -- The Powerful Consumer -- The Urge to Act -- Paradigm Shift -- Part I The Formation of Expectations -- 2 Conventional Theories of Expectations -- The Keynesian Mandate -- What Is Past Is Prologue -- Rational Expectations Hypothesis -- How Should Rationality Be Tested? -- Private versus Public Information -- Empirical Models -- Importance of Accuracy -- Costs and Benefits of Updated Expectations -- Refinements of Expectations Models -- Reification of Economic Data -- Data on Economic Expectations -- Are Expectations Backward or Forward Looking? -- Rational Expectations: Economists versus Consumers -- Evidence of Cognitive Limitations -- Unemployment Expectations -- Weak Evidence for Cognitive Limitations -- 3 Private and Public Sources of Economic Information -- Survey Methodology -- Knowledge of Official Data on the Economy -- Reported Awareness of Official Economic Statistics -- Demographic Correlates of Knowledge of Official Statistics -- Specific Rate Answers -- Lack of Knowledge about Economic Statistics -- Importance of Information on Official Economic Statistics -- Coverage of Official Economic Statistics in the Mass Media -- Private Knowledge about the Performance of the Economy -- Assessment of People's Knowledge of Official Statistics -- 4 Processing Economic Information -- Subliminal Travel -- Conscious, Preconscious, and Subliminal Processing -- Optimal Use of Cognitive Resources -- Expectations Are Innate -- Inherent Numerical Sense -- Preference for Frequencies.. - Expectations and Measurement Methods -- Response Scales -- Probability Measures of Expectations -- Cognitive Burden -- Measurement of Uncertainty -- Framing and Context Effects -- Experimental Tests of Probability Measures -- Probability Measures -- Incomplete Use of Probability Scales -- Errors in Probability Assessments -- Comparisons of Probability versus Verbal Likelihood Scales -- Challenges in the Twenty-first Century -- New Sentiment Measures -- New Analytic Strategies -- New Data Collection Methods -- 9 Tailored Economic Expectations -- Macroeconomic Emphasis -- Expectations among Socioeconomic Subgroups -- Differences by Education -- Differences by Household Income -- Differences by Age -- Differences by Gender and Marital Status -- Differences across Geographic Regions -- A Rising Tide ... -- 10 Economic Expectations -- Formation of Expectations -- Impact on Macroeconomy -- Equilibrium as Context -- Orthodox Defense of Rational Expectations -- Resistance to and Acceptance of the New Paradigm -- Behavioral Economics -- References -- Index.. - Nonconscious Learning and Model Building -- Attention to Information -- Nonconscious Learning -- Similarities to Econometric Methods -- The Automaticity of Expectations -- 5 Affective Influences on Expectations -- What Are Affective Influences? -- Evaluations -- Moods -- Emotions -- Automatic Evaluations of Economic Information -- Consumer Confidence Measurements -- The Influence of Moods on Information Processing -- Negative News Dominates Conscious Recall -- Mood and Cyclical Changes in Confidence -- Expectations Need Emotions -- Self-Motivation -- Social Contagion -- Passionate Expectations -- 6 The Construction of Expectations -- The Masterpiece of Evolution -- Dual-Process Models -- Social Resources -- Preference for Conscious Deliberation -- Integrated Mental Resources -- Attention: Conscious and Nonconscious -- Tailored Expectations -- When Are Expectations Formed? -- Source of Economic Information -- Context Shapes Expectations -- Accuracy of Expectations -- Minimizing the Cost of Accuracy -- Importance of Social Interactions -- Scientific Lament -- Required Paradigm Shift -- A New Theory of Economic Expectations -- Part II The Consumer and the Macroeconomy -- 7 Expectations of Macroeconomic Cycles -- Consumers Shift from Subsistence to Discretion -- What Causes Recessions? -- Elephants and Fleas -- Restricted Empirical Tests -- Self-Fulfilling Expectations -- Expectations of Macroeconomic Cycles -- Consumers' Expectations as a Leading Economic Indicator -- Subgroup Variations in the Index of Consumer Sentiment -- New Micro Foundations for Macroeconomics -- 8 The Measurement of Expectations -- Behavioral Economics -- Index of Consumer Sentiment -- Survey Methodology -- Sample Design and Interview Methodology -- Questions Used to Measure Consumer Sentiment3 -- Index Construction -- Alternate Methods of Index Construction.. - Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.
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| Emner | |
| Sjanger | |
| Dewey | |
| ISBN | 0-511-79159-3. - 1-108-65069-4
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