Foundations of Risk Analysis.
Terje. Aven
Bok Engelsk 2012 · Electronic books.
| Utgitt | Chichester : Wiley , 2012
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|---|---|
| Omfang | 1 online resource (229 pages)
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| Utgave | 2nd ed.
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| Opplysninger | FOUNDATIONS OF RISK ANALYSIS -- Contents -- Preface to the second edition -- Preface to the first edition -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The importance of risk and uncertainty assessments -- 1.2 The need to develop a proper risk analysis framework -- Bibliographic notes -- 2 Common thinking about risk and risk analysis -- 2.1 Accident risk -- 2.1.1 Accident statistics -- 2.1.2 Risk analysis -- 2.1.3 Reliability analysis -- 2.2 Economic risk -- 2.2.1 General definitions of economic risk in business and project management -- 2.2.2 A cost risk analysis -- 2.2.3 Finance and portfolio theory -- 2.2.4 Treatment of risk in project discounted cash flow analysis -- 2.3 Discussion and conclusions -- 2.3.1 The classical approach -- 2.3.2 The Bayesian paradigm -- 2.3.3 Economic risk and rational decision-making -- 2.3.4 Other perspectives and applications -- 2.3.5 Conclusions -- Bibliographic notes -- 3 How to think about risk and risk analysis -- 3.1 Basic ideas and principles -- 3.1.1 Background knowledge -- 3.1.2 Models and simplifications in probability considerations -- 3.1.3 Observable quantities -- 3.2 Economic risk -- 3.2.1 A simple cost risk example -- 3.2.2 Production risk -- 3.2.3 Business and project management -- 3.2.4 Investing money in a stock market -- 3.2.5 Discounted cash flow analysis -- 3.3 Accident risk -- 3.4 Discussion -- Bibliographic notes -- 4 How to assess uncertainties and specify probabilities -- 4.1 What is a good probability assignment? -- 4.1.1 Criteria for evaluating probabilities -- 4.1.2 Heuristics and biases -- 4.1.3 Evaluation of the assessors -- 4.1.4 Standardization and consensus -- 4.2 Modeling -- 4.2.1 Examples of models -- 4.2.2 Discussion -- 4.3 Assessing uncertainty of Y -- 4.3.1 Assignments based on classical statistical methods -- 4.3.2 Analyst judgments using all sources of information.. - 4.3.3 Formal expert elicitation -- 4.3.4 Bayesian analysis -- 4.4 Uncertainty assessments of a vector X -- 4.4.1 Cost risk -- 4.4.2 Production risk -- 4.4.3 Reliability analysis -- 4.5 Discussion -- 4.5.1 Risk analysis and science -- 4.5.2 Probability and utility -- 4.5.3 Probability and knowledge -- 4.5.4 Probability models -- 4.5.5 Firm and vague probabilities -- 4.5.6 The need for seeing beyond probabilities -- 4.5.7 Interval (imprecise) probabilities -- 4.5.8 Example of interval (imprecise) probabilities in a risk analysis setting -- 4.5.9 Possibility theory -- 4.5.10 Example of interval (imprecise) probabilities in a risk analysis context using possibility theory -- 4.5.11 Final comments -- Bibliographic notes -- 5 How to use risk analysis to support decision-making -- 5.1 What is a good decision? -- 5.1.1 Features of a decision-making model -- 5.1.2 Decision-support tools -- 5.1.3 Discussion -- 5.2 Some examples -- 5.2.1 Accident risk -- 5.2.2 Scrap in place or complete removal of plant -- 5.2.3 Production system -- 5.2.4 Reliability target -- 5.2.5 Health risk -- 5.2.6 Warranties -- 5.2.7 Offshore development project -- 5.2.8 Risk assessment: National sector -- 5.2.9 Multi-attribute utility example -- 5.3 Risk problem classification schemes -- 5.3.1 A scheme based on consequences and uncertainties -- 5.3.2 A scheme based on closeness to hazard and level of authority -- Bibliographic notes -- 6 Summary and conclusions -- Appendix A: Basic theory of probability and statistics -- A.1 Probability theory -- A.1.1 Types of probabilities -- A.1.2 Probability rules -- A.1.3 Random quantities (random variables) -- A.1.4 Some common discrete probability distributions (models) -- A.1.5 Some common continuous distributions (models) -- A.1.6 Some remarks on probability models and their parameters -- A.1.7 Random processes.. - A.2 Classical statistical inference -- A.2.1 Nonparametric estimation -- A.2.2 Estimation of distribution parameters -- A.2.3 Testing hypotheses -- A.2.4 Regression -- A.3 Bayesian inference -- A.3.1 Statistical (Bayesian) decision analysis -- Bibliographic notes -- Appendix B: Terminology -- B.1 Risk management: Relationships between key terms -- References -- Index.. - "The book provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty." (Zentralblatt MATH, 1 December 2012).
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| Emner | |
| Sjanger | |
| Dewey | |
| ISBN | 9781119966975
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