Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Michael J. Mazarr, Samuel Charap, Abigail Casey, Irina A. Chindea, Christian Curriden, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Arthur Chan, John P. Godges, Eugene Han, Timothy R. Heath, Logan Ma, Elina Treyger, Teddy Ulin, and Ali Wyne.
Bok Engelsk 2021
| Utgitt | Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation , 2021
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| Opplysninger | Chapter One: Introduction: Anticipating an Era of Great-Power Rivalry -- Chapter Two: Theoretical Foundations: Understanding Rivalry -- Chapter Three: Theoretical Foundations: Understanding Stability -- Chapter Four: Case Study: The Anglo-German Rivalry, 1871-1913 -- Chapter Five: Case Study: The Sino-Soviet/Russian Rivalry, 1950-2001 -- Chapter Six: Case Study: The Cold War, 1947-1989 -- Chapter Seven: The Emerging U.S.-Russia Rivalry, 1991-2019 -- Chapter Eight: The Emerging U.S.-China Rivalry, 1996-2019 -- Chapter Nine: Overall Findings and Implications for the U.S. Army.. - The consensus inside and outside the U.S. government is that the international system is headed for a renewed era of intense and sometimes bitter competition among leading states. The objective of this research was to assess the emerging strategic competitions between the United States and both China and Russia, examine the approaches most likely to preserve long-term stability in these competitions, and draw implications for Army capabilities and posture. To this end, the authors reviewed existing literature on rivalries, identifying variables strongly associated with stability and instability, and, based on that research, developed a framework for assessment of such rivalries. They then applied this framework to historical cases of bilateral rivalries to identify the most important factors. Finally, they leveraged this work to assess the current state of U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China relations. Their assessment suggests that there are serious grounds for concern about the stability of both the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China rivalries. While certain contextual factors, such as mutual strategic vulnerability, will remain buffers of conflict, many of the warning signs for instability are clearly visible, and the future seems likely to be even more volatile. The report offers recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Army, in particular, to manage this challenging new era of competition. One overarching theme identified is that to ensure stability—and avoid war—the policy response to this intensified great-power competition should be nuanced and go beyond merely bolstering capabilities to counter rivals.
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