Balancing acts : Russian-Chinese relations and developments in the SCO and CSTO
Geir Flikke
Bok · 2009
| Utgitt | Oslo : Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt , 2009
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| Omfang | 50 p.
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| Opplysninger | ABSTRACT: Under the impact of the global recession and in the aftermath of the Georgia—Russia war in August 2008, the complex structures of Eurasian politics have again risen to the surface. Chinese—Russian relations have become more manifest, while Russia has stepped up its efforts to revive the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). While the Chinese—Russian contract on constructing the East Siberian Pipeline has shown the Central Asian states that the Chinese—Russian relationship is a long-term one, this has also increased apprehension amongst them that Russia may hold a too dominant position on the Eurasian landmass. The subsequently reduced room for manoeuvring for the Central Asian states has broughtsome into a tighter, less comfortable bilateral relationship with Russia, while others have increased their regional counter-balancing efforts by opting out of Russian-dominated fora. While the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has remained as a Chinese—Russian umbrella over the region, the relevance of the organisation in the context of regional security has declined - if indeed it ever was significant. There is no clarity as to future members of the organisation, and attempts to give it a clearer profile in Afghanistan have failed to materialise. China seems to attach growing significance to the BRIC format, and Russia’s linking the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) with the CSTO reveals Moscow ambitions to bring security and economic cooperation together. The most unsettling factorin Eurasian politics remains the Georgia—Russian war. Russia’s attempts to convey this scenario into a template for future conflicts in the CSTO ‘zone of responsibility’ has opened a Pandora’s box of uncertainties. Russia is the only state in Eurasia that has recognised South Ossefia and Abkhazia, and will most likely remain so. Even a traditional Moscow loyalist like Belarus has reframed firom recognising these territories. Furthermore, Russia’s resolve has challenged the traditional state-centred approach to separatist phenomena in the CIS space, rendering the potential peacekeeping functions of the CSTO even less relevant. In sum, Eurasian politics is a solidly founded realist game, and not a process that reflects particularly high levels of coordination or multilateral integration. COPYRIGHT: This document is published under the CC-BY-NC-SA licence. More information: https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/cclicenses/
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| ISBN | 978-82-7002-249-6
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