Engagement with North Korea : a portfolio-based approach to diplomacy /


Rafiq Dossani.
Bok Engelsk 2020
Annen tittel
Utgitt
Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation , 2020
Opplysninger
CHAPTER ONE: Introduction -- Step One: Develop the Portfolio Method -- Step Two: Develop Test Cases -- Step Three: Validate Through Expert Dialogue -- CHAPTER TWO: Approach -- Inadequate Domestic and International Support -- Failure to Build Trust -- Discussion of the Logic Model -- CHAPTER THREE: Application of the Logic Model -- Country Selection -- In-Country Stakeholders -- Getting to Agreed Negotiation Goals -- Selecting Action Plans -- Mapping Action Plans to Goals -- Recommended Action Plans and Portfolios -- Building Consensus Among In-Country Stakeholders -- CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusion -- APPENDIX A. Screening of Action Plans -- APPENDIX B. Measuring Consensus Among In-Country Stakeholders -- APPENDIX C. Glossary.. - Following the failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, the author proposed and tested an approach to negotiations, called the portfolio method, that addresses the reasons for past failures in an effort to develop action plans that will successfully engage all sides. The elements of the portfolio method are (1) the inclusion of countries with national interests that overlap those of the United States and North Korea, (2) prior agreement on the goals of negotiation between the negotiating parties, (3) the inclusion of primarily hard commitments in agreements, (4) the incorporation of the preferences of in-country stakeholders, (5) the linking of multiple areas of negotiation, and (6) trust-building mechanisms. To test the portfolio method, the author assembled a team of experts, who went through the steps for portfolio creation with actual cases using the portfolio method and provided a review. The author used the method of Track II dialogue to assemble experts who are nonstate actors with differing national interests to investigate how breakdowns in negotiations can be addressed. The action plans were first reviewed for the support they would receive from in-country stakeholders. Second, experts discussed combinations of action plans that would meet the negotiation goals. Using this discussion, experts proposed three portfolios with different levels of risk, trade-offs, and ongoing commitments. Third, the expert panel identified the roles that stakeholder countries could play with regard to ensuring that the agreements succeed.
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