Recessions : Prospects and Developments.
Nerea M. Pérez
Bok Engelsk 2008 · Electronic books.
| Omfang | 1 online resource (184 pages)
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| Utgave | 1st ed.
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| Opplysninger | Intro -- RECESSIONS:PROSPECTS AND DEVELOPMENTS -- RECESSIONS:PROSPECTS AND DEVELOPMENTS -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1WHAT IS A RECESSION, WHO DECIDES WHEN ITSTARTS, AND WHEN DO THEY DECIDE?∗ -- Abstract -- What is a Recession? -- Who Decides When the U.S. Economy is in a Recession? -- If There Is a Recession, When Will We Know When It Started? -- Rhetorical and Analytical Significance -- References -- Chapter 2BUSINESS CYCLES IN ECONOMIC THEORY:EXOGENOUS OR ENDOGENOUS? -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The RBC Theory -- 3. The EBC Theory -- 4. And What About the Facts? -- 5. An Application: Utility Maximization with Market Inefficiency -- 6. The Dynamics of Perpetual Cycles - A Numerical Example -- 7. Concluding Remarks -- Appendix. The Analytics of the RBC Model -- a. The Non-Equilibrium Optimal Control Problem -- b. Optimality Conditions and the Steady State -- c. Transitional Dynamics -- d. Calibration and the Results of the Benchmark RBC Model -- References -- Chapter 3EVALUATING THE POTENTIALFOR A RECESSION IN 2008∗ -- Abstract -- Introduction -- How Recessions Are Defined -- What Causes Recessions? -- Employment and the Business Cycle -- What Causes the Business Cycle? -- Current Recessionary Pressures -- Housing Bust -- Liquidity Crunch -- Energy Shock -- Popular Leading Indicators of Recessions -- Yield Curve Inversion -- Credit Spreads -- Stock Prices -- Index of Leading Indicators -- Policy Responses -- Fiscal Stimulus -- Monetary Policy -- Are Recessions Unavoidable? -- References -- Chapter4THERECESSIONARYIMPACTOFSTABILIZINGINFLATION -- Abstract -- 1.Introduction -- 2.RegimeShiftsinCanadianInflationDynamics -- 2.1.TheBackward-LookingPhillipsCurve -- 2.2.EvidenceofStructuralBreaksinReduced-FormInflationModels -- 2.2.1.StructuralBreaks:QuarterlyData -- 2.2.2.StructuralBreaksinthePost-1984Period:MonthlyData.. - 2.3.ChangesintheTimeSeriesPropertiesofCanadianInflation -- 3.AModeloftheCanadianEconomy -- 3.1.NominalRigiditiesandtheDynamicsoftheEconomy -- 3.1.1.FirmsandPriceSetting -- 3.1.2.LaborSupplyandWageSetting -- 3.2.RationalExpectationsEquilibrium -- 3.3.WageandPriceInflation:thePhillipsCurve -- 4.AMethodtoBuildCounterfactualHistories -- 4.1.ModelConsistentDisturbances:TheOne-ShockCase -- 4.1.1.TheConsistencyIssue -- 4.1.2.TheSingularityIssue -- 4.2.Multiple-shockModels -- 5.TheImpactofInflationTargetingonthePhillipsCurve:CounterfactualExperimentfortheCanadianEconomy -- 5.1.Data -- 5.1.1.MonetaryPolicyRule -- 5.2.CounterfactualundertheAlternativeMonetaryPolicy -- 5.2.1.ShiftsinInflationDynamicsandthePhillipsCurve -- 5.2.2.InflationStabilizationandthe1992-1994Recession -- 5.2.3.TheRoleofMonetaryPolicyShocksinthe1992-1994Recession -- 5.2.4.CounterfactualPathsofthePolicyInstrumentandtheMonetaryPolicyTrans-missionMechanism -- 6.Conclusion -- A.Appendix:ModelParametrization -- A.1.PreferencesandTechnology -- A.2.ExogenousVariables -- Acknowledgment -- References -- Chapter 5ON ACCURACY MEASURE OF RECESSIONFORECASTS -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Empirical Model -- 3. Empirical Results -- 3.1. Data Sources -- 3.2. Forecast Evaluations -- 3.3. Results on Recession Forecasts -- Notes on Tables 2-5 -- 3.4. Results on Future Recession Forecasts -- 3.4.1. Results on Canadian Recessions -- 3.4.2. Results on American Recessions -- 3.5. Discussions -- 4. Conclusions -- References -- Chapter6PREDICTINGRECESSIONSUSINGFINANCIALVARIABLES -- Abstract -- 1.Introduction -- 2.MethodsforPredictingRecessions -- 3.EmpiricalEvidence -- 4.ConcludingRemarks -- References -- Chapter 7MYSTERIOUS SOCIO-ECONOMIC DISTURBANCESAND CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS -- Abstract -- I. Nature and Scope of Business Cycles -- II. Non-recessionary Economic Disturbances.. - III. Contemplation of the Policy Measures -- References -- Expert CommentaryDYNAMIC INVESTOR RISK PREMIAAND RECESSIONS -- Introduction -- The Investment Decisions of Firms -- Theoretical Dynamics of the Risk Premium -- Asset Pricing Models and the Risk Premium -- The Macroeconomic Model -- Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Fama-French Risk Premia -- Discussion and Interpretation -- New Directions in Research -- References -- INDEX -- Blank Page.
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| ISBN | 9781614707349
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