Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System

Marigold Black
Bok · Engelsk · 2023

Annen tittel	Antarctica at Risk
Utgitt	RAND Corporation , 2023
Opplysninger	The Antarctic is becoming a zone of contested governance. Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise (TTX), the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring and competition in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), a governance regime that seems increasingly ill-fitted to modern strategic dynamics. The authors develop a portrait of the Antarctic as a potential point of geostrategic tension by conducting a review of the history of the ATS, highlighting existing challenges with governance, and setting the stage for possible friction points between nations. The authors explore the interested parties, the nature of their interests and their existing positions as reflected in their policies and activities. This analysis was used to design and develop a TTX that challenged, tested and stretched thinking and identified potential geostrategic friction points for the Antarctic. The authors provide empirically driven projections of future dynamics to expose uncertainty, expand understanding and provide a stronger basis for policy and decisionmaking for the region.